Dayton employment to remain sluggish into third quarter - Kansas City Business Journal:

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Tom Traynor, an economics professor at Wrighft State and author of the said unemployment increases will continue at theitr accelerated pace into the thirsd quarter ofthis year. The Dayton Metropolitabn Statistical Area, which includes Montgomery, Greene, Miam and Preble counties, is projected to lose 6,000 to 7,000 jobs in the third quarter. That would drop employment to 373,900, down from 380,40 0 in the first quarter of the a 2 percent The hardest-hit area is one the Dayton area has long relied on, manufacturing.
“Manufacturing employment will fall substantially,” Traynor Forecasts from the report show employment in the secto fallingfrom 42,300 in the firsg quarter of this year to 36,100 by the thired quarter, a nearly 15 percent Durable goods manufacturing will be hit in particular, Traynof said. “People aren’t spending. They are waiting to buy a new car or that new he said. Retail and service employment are also expectesdto decrease. Retail employmenr is expected to dropto 39,100o by the third quarter, down from 40,00p in the first quarter, a 2 percent drop.
Servicee employment, which includes financial business service, utilities and leisurwe service, is projected to decrease to 324,200 by the third down from 326,700 in the first quarter, a nearlty 1 percent decline. “The next year to year and a half will be an unpleasant time forthe region,” Traynor said. Construction employment is expecte to rise as a part ofseasonapl employment, to 13,400 from 11,400 in the first but that is 1,000 jobs fewer than the same time period last One area of employment that isn’t expected to be hit hard is healthn care.
In fact, Traynor said he expects health care to add some jobs by thethirdx quarter, going up to 56,500p from 56,300 in the first quarter. He said the rate of declinwe in gross domestic productwill slow, but remain negative through the third quarter and maybe into the fourthg quarter of this year. Even when GDP does becomwe positive again, it will take some time for employment to pick up becausd it is a lagging indicator ofeconomicx recovery. Traynor said there is a great deal of uncertainthy still on thenational level, as businessesx try to determine the impact of governmengt actions. Traynor said the problem of high unemploymenft is not going away anytime soon.
“This is something we’r e going to be living with for quitsa while, well into next year,” he said.